Saudi Arabia’s capital is running below international norms on hospital bed capacity and will need targeted additions in the west, east and south of the city by the end of the decade, according to a new report by Knight Frank.
Riyadh’s bed density stands at 1.7 per 1,000 people, below both the Saudi average of 1.9 and a global average of 2.9, the consultancy said, citing Ministry of Health (2023) data.
The Ministry of Health operates 53 per cent of inpatient facilities across Riyadh Province and accounts for 60 per cent of total inpatient bed capacity. Outpatient care is largely driven by the private sector, which accounts for about 70 per cent of the outpatient market in the province, the report said.
Knight Frank’s analysis indicates no immediate inpatient bed requirement in Riyadh’s northern and central zones. By 2030, the western zone is projected to require 1,500 to 2,000 additional beds, while the eastern and southern zones each are projected to need 1,000 to 1,500 beds. On a longer view, the overall gap equates to about 15,300 beds by 2040 based on the global average of 2.9 beds per 1,000, or about 2,800 based on the Saudi average of 1.9, the report said.
Demographics and economic growth are pushing demand higher. Riyadh Province is home to 27 per cent of the Kingdom’s population, and its residents are projected to rise from about 9 million in 2023 to 12.5 million by 2040 if a 2 per cent compound annual growth rate is maintained, according to the report. Riyadh City, which accounts for just over 80 per cent of the province’s population, is projected to reach about 10.7 million by 2040, Knight Frank said, citing Oxford Economics.
The city contributes about 50 per cent of Saudi Arabia’s non-oil GDP, according to Invest Saudi, and more than 500 companies had established regional headquarters in Riyadh by the first half of 2024.
The report lists a substantial urban pipeline by 2030: approximately 300,000 new homes, 4.6 million square metres of office space, 2.6 million square metres of retail, and about 28,800 hotel keys. For the 2034 FIFA World Cup, eight of 11 new stadiums will be within Riyadh, and logistics expansion includes a 3 million square metre Integrated Logistics Zone offering 50 per cent tax exemption, 100 per cent foreign ownership and no limits on capital repatriation.
Insurance coverage is supporting private-sector utilisation. About 51.8 per cent of Riyadh residents aged 15 and above are covered by private health insurance for basic care — the second-highest share in the Kingdom after the Eastern Province at 55.9 per cent — under the Cooperative Health Insurance System, the report said. Between 2015 and 2023, private-sector outpatient and inpatient volumes in the province rose 1.4 times and 1.9 times, respectively. Average visits per person were 2.7 in the private sector versus 1.1 in the public sector.
Digital infrastructure is expanding. The Seha Virtual Hospital — described by the report as the world’s largest — links more than 150 facilities, offers 29 specialties, and serves over 480,000 patients annually. The HMG group, in collaboration with GE Healthcare, has developed a tele-ICU command centre in Riyadh. On the supply chain side, the NUPCO unified e-commerce procurement platform manages about SAR 49 billion in contracts across 65,000 items.
According to the Ministry of Investment, Saudi Arabia’s digital health market was valued at SAR 698 million in 2022 and is expected to grow at 25 per cent CAGR to 2030, the report said.
The report outlines zonal population trends that underpin service needs. In the western zone, including districts such as Al Suwaidi and Namar, population growth to 2030 and new residential projects are associated with additional demand for beds. In the eastern zone, covering districts such as Ar Rawdah and Al Hamra, growth tied to commercial projects such as Riyadh Industrial Park and Forsan supports the projected requirement for additional inpatient capacity by 2030. The southern zone is projected to see a modest population increase by 2030 and, given current and planned infrastructure, a bed gap is expected to persist. The central zone shows no additional inpatient bed requirement through 2030, according to the report.
The report also lists government initiatives to expand private-sector participation through public-private partnerships (PPPs) in Riyadh. Planned PPP projects include long-term care services, home care, dialysis, a 200-bed maternity and children’s hospital, upgrades to primary care centres, and rehabilitation centres via a 150-bed facility.
A summary chart in the report shows incremental demand for beds across the city by zone, excluding long-term care beds. The northern zone is described as having a strong presence of leading providers addressing current and near-term inpatient demand, with potential for expansion of outpatient services to meet population growth in new communities.
